Long- and Short-Term Market Outlook

Zack Gardner 
Grain Marketing & Origination Specialist

Looking Towards Fall 2025 Marketing

Short-Term Market Outlook

• Corn: Bullish. We saw a yield reduction in our last USDA report, but no increases to corn exports or ethanol crush. With how good our ethanol demand and exports have been, I think we should see up to 400 million bushels in usage between the two on future reports (probably smaller incremental changes such as 50-100 million bushels per report).

• Soybeans: Neutral. I am bearish on soybeans, but our local processors are really struggling to source soybeans from the farm below $10.00 cash. If futures drop and they want to source soybeans, they are going to have to present a decent cash price.

 Long-Term Market Outlook 

• Corn: Neutral to bearish. The solution to low prices is low prices, but the solution to high prices is high prices. If the world is expecting a record South American soybean crop and we have a bullish corn story, doesn’t that imply we will see more corn acres next year?

• Soybeans: Bearish. There is a reason why November 2025 soybean futures hit new lows last week. Not only is Brazil expecting a record soybean crop, but so are Argentina and Paraguay, and they’re all getting the rains to make it happen.

Fall of 2025 Marketing
So why are we talking about fall of ’25 marketing? With all the recent export sales (both corn and soybeans), export companies and domestic processors are struggling to source nearby grain, but the world feels comfortable on new crop supplies. Since September 1^st, December 2024 corn has rallied $0.24, but December 2025 corn has actually fallen $0.05! Similarly with soybeans, new crop has been more reactionary than the crop we just harvested. Nearby bean futures have dropped $0.31, but November 2025 bean futures have fallen $0.35.
 
Marketing Plan Considerations
Questions to ask yourself that might influence your marketing plans:

• Do we expect more bearishness in new crop bean prices as we get closer to South America’s record soy crop hitting the market in February/March?

• If soybeans are below break-even projections, how will this affect upcoming planting intentions?

• If we expect some acres switching from soybeans to corn in the upcoming year, should we more proactively market fall of 2025 corn? Our first acreage estimates will be from the USDA Ag Outlook forum in February and the March 31^st Prospective Plantings report.

• If we are bullish on corn, should we have offers in place for both this year’s crop and next year’s crop to reward the rally before spring acreage reports?

• It’s tough to be both bullish futures and bullish basis. So, if we are bullish corn futures, does that suggest taking advantage of these strong basis levels before we see enough of a rally to trigger farmer selling? And the converse on soybeans, if we are bearish futures, doesn’t that suggest the basis should come up?

To discuss marketing strategies, contact the Key Cooperative Grain Team!